In 2019, what is the background for aquatic products trade? Combining the opinions of many experts, the following backgrounds are worthy of attention.
First, the Sino-US trade war will turn into the first half of the year
At the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in December last year, the heads of state of China and the United States reached a consensus to suspend the escalation of the trade war. The United States agreed not to impose new tariffs before March 1, the original 200 billion US dollars. The Chinese goods exported to the United States still maintain a 10% tariff, and at the same time instructed the economic and trade teams of both sides to step up negotiations to reach an agreement. The Sino-US Vice Ministerial Consultation held in Beijing on January 7-9 made progress. Vice Premier Liu He went to the United States to further negotiate at the end of January. US President Trump also made a number of essays on Twitter, optimistic about Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. . On February 24th, US President Trump announced two consecutive tweets in his Twitter account, which will postpone the plan to raise China's tariffs on US exports to the US on March 1. These signals indicate that the two sides are expected to reach an agreement to end the trade war. This is undoubtedly a positive signal for the import and export of aquatic products. However, the latest news revealed that even if the agreement between China and the United States is related to tax risks, the US may still adopt tariff measures again in the name of China’s breach of the agreement.
Second, domestic fishing time and space further compression
In recent years, the fishery resources of domestic fisheries have been attenuated, the fishing season has been extended, the pilots for quota fishing have been expanded, the state has implemented measures to reduce and limit production, rectify aquaculture pollution, strengthen fishery law enforcement, standardize the management of fishing gear and fisheries, and rivers such as the Yangtze River. The implementation of the ban on fishing, the intensity of various resource protection has been further increased, the domestic fishing time and space has been greatly reduced, and domestic fishing production will shrink. This will exacerbate the strain on the supply of aquatic products, and it also indicates that some seafood purchase prices will continue to rise. At the same time, intensive and efficient models such as deep-water cages and factory farming will be further expanded.
Third, China is importing more seafood
In 2018, China cracked down on smuggling, and the smuggling cases of imported seafood such as shrimp and salmon continued to break, and at the same time, the import tariffs were gradually reduced. From January 1st, the China-Australia FTA came into effect, and the import tariff on Australian seafood fell to zero. Last year, the total import volume of white shrimps in Ecuador was over 98,800 tons, nearly five times that of 2017. In addition to Ecuador, shrimp and Indian shrimp exporters are also actively cooperating with domestic importers to promote the import of products.
Vietnam's border trade channel will face unprecedented pressure risks in 2019, but many experts still believe that this year's border trade smuggling will still be a very serious problem. As far as the total import volume is concerned, the border trade of the Vietnamese channel will still exceed the direct sales and cause unfavorable competition for Chinese legitimate importers.
Fourth, domestic demand continues to expand, and aquatic products processing products are moving toward nutrition, safety and convenience.
With the improvement of domestic living standards, the demand for high-quality protein is expanding day by day. With the promotion of ocean products in the southwest, northwest and northeast, the demand for aquatic products in the mainland has increased greatly. China has been regarded as the largest market for future seafood. Russia, Vietnam, Norway, Chile, Ecuador, India and other countries are closely watching the Chinese market, and the import trade of aquatic products will continue to rise.
At the same time, with the acceleration of people's work and life rhythm and the increase of young children with only children, convenience food, snack food, functional food and organic food will be more popular in the direction of consumption.
5. The trade prospects of several major aquatic products in the international market are different.
1. Global shrimp prices will continue to be sluggish
In the first half of 2018, shrimp production in India and Ecuador increased by double digits. Global shrimp prices plummeted and the consumer market entered a “new normal”. At the end of last year, the retail price of shrimp in the United States fell, and the Indian region also had a chain reaction and prices fell. According to industry insiders, there are 10 new shrimp processing plants in India this year. Indonesia has also increased production. More and more Vietnamese farms have adopted high-density farming models. After several years of low-yield farming in China, it is also possible to resume production. According to analysis by Dutch cooperative bank analyst Gorjan Nikolik, global shrimp production will increase by 1 million tons in the next 3-4 years. Although shrimp diseases (such as SHIV) may affect production, the SIMP bill implemented in the US this year will also be on the market. Supply and demand have a direct impact, but the overall oversupply will continue to occur this year.